"Nick" wrote ...
Was expecting today to be quite a good day in the south (south
Hampshire specifically), particularly given the cold front was weak
down here and it was fine late yesterday. Was hoping to get out
today
given the prospects of "Bill" tomorrow but seems to be turning into
a
disturbed day with heavy showers about, possibly the most disturbed
day in the south since the 6th. Temperatures really struggling as
well, e.g. 17C at Heathrow or 16C at Cardiff at 1100BST which seems
a
couple of degrees below the norm for that time of day.

.... one of those situations when the surface charts doesn't really do
justice to the situation; there is a marked upper trough (colder air
throughout troposphere in this case, relative to either side) swinging
from west to east, being hustled along by events further west and
relaxing (i.e. lessening the dynamic / vorticity forcing), but still
enough of a force hereabouts to give short-lived moderate, locally
heavy showers - they're not lasting long (15 mins at most).

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn001.png

should improve as the trough moves on and we get descent to its rear.
On the GFS timing, the axis of the trough should be passing overhead
here ~midday GMT.

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023