On Aug 30, 9:58*am, Nick wrote:
On Aug 30, 9:22*am, Dawlish wrote:

Charts that would have been very nice in July! (but will be very
welcome in 10 days time too!)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Some nice September weather possibly on the cards, starting in the
second week of Sept. Both the gfs and the ECM are in agreement. I
won't take much more persuading that it is likely to happen.

Met Office suggesting settled conditions for that week, but for the
south only. I guess there's some disagreement how far north the high
will get: the MetO would appear to favour a continuation of the
current WSW spell, anticyclonic in the south - which would normally be
absolutely fine if only it wasn't for that damned cold pool of water
in the Atlantic!

Nick

Hi Nick,

Your point about the south's weather likely to be better than the
north's is a good one. The MetO's present summary shows that, but is
actually is very ambiguous about next week in the south:

"UK Outlook for Friday 4 Sep 2009 to Sunday 13 Sep 2009:
Sunshine and showers on Friday, and perhaps longer periods of rain in
the north and east. Showers ease in the south with many parts dry on
Saturday, but remaining unsettled in the north. Windy at first across
the UK, especially in the north, but winds ease in England and Wales
during the day. **Likely to be less unsettled in the south of the UK
for a time, with more in the way of drier, brighter weather but still
with a chance of showers or rain, especially later in the period**.
The north likely to stay unsettled with rain and strong winds at
times. Temperatures below normal at first, with some cool nights
expected, but recovering to around normal by the end of the period,
**possibly becoming warm in the southeast**.

Updated: 1256 on Sun 30 Aug 2009"

Mind you, actually trying to tease out any detail from this is very
difficult. This is a forecast for a 10-day inclusive period, squeezed
into 120 words! Instead of doing the crossword, I reckon the
forecasters have fun with the skill of precis in their tea breaks
*)). Its brevity shows that it is not given any real importance and
the MetO never returns to this forecast to attempt any judgement of
its accuracy. They know the difficulties of forecasting at any
distance above 5-7 days.

There's enough consistency in the gfs and enough agreement with the
ECM, for me to forecast, with 75% confidence, dry and settled
conditions over the south of the UK in 10 days time, at T240. Temps
will be above the September daytime average. The NW won't be faring as
well and will be plagued by fronts, giving much more unsettled
conditions.

I reckon next week could be a good one for a short break on the south
coast. Still "coulds". Nothing certain, but gamble on these forecasts
and I promise you that you'll come out winning significantly more
times than you lose!