Will Hand wrote:

"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...
Nick wrote:

On Aug 31, 10:44 am, "Will Hand" wrote:

Tempted to
light a fire but probably won't as I will need the logs this winter if
that Atlantic cold pool persists :-)


Let's hope it does, summer's loss could be winter's gain....


N Atlantic SST anomaly pattern, if it persists, should produce a cyclonic
NW'ly type so, with the cold pool, it ought to be a rather cool winter
but
by no means cold. The prospect of cold easterlies looks highly unlikely.


Who needs easterlies, a cool NW'ly will suit me just fine. That setup
will give pretty good snowfall at times in my area with the added bonus
of less occasions of fog and drizzle in yucky mild SW'lies. Bring it on!
Thanks Graham that's cheered up my gloomy Bank Holiday :-)

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

I keep a monthly anomaly spreadsheet highlighting each month (colour
coded) if it's been 0.5°C warmer/colder 50% wetter/drier than the
1971-2000 average. I have this now from 1960 and update it each month.
By using the 'Split Pane' on excel I can scroll the current year (2009)
up and down and see if there are any 'matches' with previous years. Not
surprisingly, I can rarely get two months that correspond with any
current trend so it is very thin to make any forecast/projections of any
future patterns.

The nearest similarities I found were 1976, 1989, 1995, 1997, 2003, 2005
and 2007. (January to August)
1977 was cold Jan, mild Feb.
1990 was a very mild winter.
1996 was a cold and dry winter.
1998 was a very mild winter.
2004 was an average winter, Jan mild.
2008 was a very mild winter.

As you can see thats conclusive! However, adding Grahams SST anomalies
into the equation, maybe the swingometer heads in a colder direction.
One other fly in the ointment is El Nino, this normally swings us in the
mild direction.

So my forecast is for an average winter in both temperature and rainfall.

Gee, I could get a job at the Met Office at this rate ;-)
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net