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Old August 31st 09, 09:49 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Martin Rowley Martin Rowley is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,750
Default Assessment MetO forecasts this BH w/e

http://freespace.virgin.net/martin.r...OH_AugBH09.htm

.... Monday's round-up:

13 Greens, 10 Yellows, 0 Ambers, 1 Red

and the Aggregate:

Green: 44 (55%)
Yellow: 16 (20%) .... total Green + Yellow = 60 (75%)
Amber: 8 (10%)
Red: 12 (15%)

[ total = 80 individual forecast 'packages' ]

Although these data cover a range of forecast lead-times, and are from
two essentially different types of forecast (web, point specific &
text), the split [75% essentially 'right' and 25% essentially 'wrong']
probably represents a fair summary of forecasts for a similar location
in this country.

When I get more time, I'll break down the forecast into 'lead-times'
etc., and put the results on my web site.

One general point though, for us anyway (i.e. Poole/Bournemouth etc.),
it's best to use the symbols and text together, and to follow the
sequence of forecasts rather than rely on just one issue - this is
particularly applicable to the computer-generated forecasts.

Martin.



--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023