"Paul Hyett" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 1 Sep 2009 at 12:25:43, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

36 hours on and still looking good for a settled and warmer period of
weather next week, for England, at least. Good agreement between the
ECM and gfs. The MetO are coming round to the idea, but won't fully
commit themselves on today's 6-15 day update. I don't really blame
them. It's very easy to make mistakes forecasting at 10 days.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html

If only that set-up would wait 3 months...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Any forecast beyond 5 days needs to be taken with a huge pinch of salt at
this time of year, despite any apparent consistency. Hurricanes can develop
quickly and unexpectedly and have great potential for altering the strength
of jets and their orientation as they become extra-tropical. Also there is
at least one upper trough disruption before the forecast high pressure
period and models do not handle trough disruptions well. Confidence in an
anticyclone at this stage has to 50% at most I'd say.

Will
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