In article ,
Ned writes:

"Dawlish" wrote in message news:2d8c8221-e967-4149
...

However, I have maintained for several years that there are times when
it is possible to forecast with 75% accuracy out to the far reaches
of 10 days, where forecasting usually becomes guesswork. I could be
wrong, of course (about 25% of the time), but I think this is one of
those times where it is possible. I haven't seen anything yet to
change my mind about the 10th and the MetO have certainly come around
to the same way of thinking as myself, about next week and the time
around the 10th in particular.

"Most parts are expected to become mainly dry, bright and warm around
the middle of next week" - today's 6-15 day tea-break precis! 8))


I am intrigued by your claim of making a "forecast". Are you not simply
model watching, as many of us here do, and when there is agreement at
10 days up pops your forecast. To claim the MO have come round to the
same way of thinking as yourself is plainly ridiculous, when you don't
actually "make" a forecast, only interpret the models. Or am I missing
a skill you also have?


As far as 10 days out, are the Met Office doing anything very different
from interpreting the models? I can't see what else they could be doing.
Of course, they may well have access to data that Dawlish does not,
notably ensembles for some models that only make their operational runs
available to the general public, so that their forecasts ought to be
better than his.
--
John Hall "Do you have cornflakes in America?"
"Well, actually, they're American."
"So what brings you to Britain then if you have cornflakes already?"
Bill Bryson: "Notes from a Small Island"