On Sep 2, 8:25*pm, "Ned" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

However, I have maintained for several years that there are times when
it is possible to forecast with 75% accuracy out to the far reaches
of 10 days, where forecasting usually becomes guesswork. I could be
wrong, of course (about 25% of the time), but I think this is one of
those times where it is possible. I haven't seen anything yet to
change my mind about the 10th and the MetO have certainly come around
to the same way of thinking as myself, about next week and the time
around the 10th in particular.
"Most parts are expected to become mainly dry, bright and warm around
the middle of next week" - today's 6-15 day tea-break precis! 8))

I am intrigued by your claim of making a "forecast". Are you not simply
model watching, as many of us here do, and when there is agreement at 10
days up pops your forecast. To claim the MO have come round to the same way
of thinking as yourself is plainly ridiculous, when you don't actually
"make" a forecast, only interpret the models. *Or am I missing a skill you
also have?

--
Ned

Only judge forecast accuracy by outcome percentage accuracy over time
Ned.