"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
I am intrigued by your claim of making a "forecast". Are you not simply
model watching, as many of us here do, and when there is agreement at 10
days up pops your forecast. To claim the MO have come round to the same
way
of thinking as yourself is plainly ridiculous, when you don't actually
"make" a forecast, only interpret the models. Or am I missing a skill you
also have?

Only judge forecast accuracy by outcome percentage accuracy over time
Ned.

But you only "forecast" once in a blue moon,on the rare occasions when
models are basically in agreement at 10 days.What you seem to be suggesting
is that when they agree at 10 days out, there is a 75% chance they'll be
correct. What skill do you add to the forecast method beyond highlighting
the agreement?

--
Ned