On Aug 31, 9:19*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 30, 9:58*am, Nick wrote:

There's enough consistency in the gfs and enough agreement with the
ECM, for me to forecast, with 75% confidence, dry and settled
conditions over the south of the UK in 10 days time, at T240. Temps
will be above the September daytime average. The NW won't be faring
as
well and will be plagued by fronts, giving much more unsettled
conditions.

You've just got to ask yourself; "Why couldn't this have happened in
July/August"! However I'll take this in September too. Just my kind of
weather. Dry settled and warm in the daytime sunshine.

The gfs spotted this pattern change first and the ECM followed soon
after. The consistency the gfs showed about the change and the
agreement from the ECM prompted the forecast and it was a good one.
There are some fronts around the NW limb of the high and there is some
light rain over the far NW of Scotland, but the rest of the country
should enjoy a fine and a dry day, after some early mist and fog in a
few areas. There's NE flow across the South producing breezy weather
and Will did correctly mention that would happen, but the overall
picture is dry and settled. Overall, that's 72 forecasts at 10 days
and 54 correct; an outcome percentage success rate of 76%.

The fine weather should last for a while too, as I've implied with my
similar forecast for 3 days time, but a change may be a-coming for 10
days time - the ECM is leading that possibility but the gfs has not
shown enough consistency yet; some runs having dallied with a
continuance of the anticyclonic weather whilst others have shown a
return to Atlantic weather over the last 48 hours. Another couple of
gfs runs showing windy and wet weather at T240 and I'd be convinced
this blocking pattern won't last to the end of the third week of
September.

Time to enjoy some quintessential Autumnal weather. 8))