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Old September 10th 09, 10:28 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Dawlish Dawlish is offline
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Default High pressure and settled conditions 2nd week in September?

On Sep 10, 9:38*am, Richard Dixon wrote:
On 10 Sep, 08:17, Dawlish wrote:

On Sep 10, 7:50*am, Dawlish wrote:


On Aug 31, 9:19*am, Dawlish wrote: On Aug 30, 9:58*am, Nick wrote:
Overall, that's 72 forecasts at 10 days and 54 correct; an outcome percentage success rate of 76%.


Sorry guys and gals, that's a mistake. I'd not added on this one!
55/72 and 76%.


Interesting - is this 55 times out of 72 consecutive days' forecasts?

Richard


No Richard. The technique does not allow that and never has. If it
did, it would point to significant and consistent model accuracy at 10
days and we'd have consistently accurate forecasts from the MetO at 10
days and we don't.