On 10 Sep, 12:50, Dawlish wrote:

If you follow the earlier posts on this thread, then back on Aug
31st., the MetO were not clearly forecasting the development of such a
dominant high pressure having developed by today. So how could I have
done it? I don't have access to any tools not available to the MetO.

I don't know how you did it. I just hope unlike the Piers Corbyns and
Jon Wittys (posted on here many moons ago) of this world you'd be open
enough to publish the methodology, or further than that, work with the
MO to improve things unlike Piers was prepared to do. Getting the work
peer-reviewed in a scientific journal is a good starting point.

In terms of a 10-day forecast, it could have been that the Met Office
had access to other forecast tools that you don't have - the ECMWF
ensembles, the Arpege forecasts from France, Deutsche Wetterdienst
etc. that could easily have displayed a bias against an anticyclone
forming. In that sense, having the extra information could be
distracting to the forecast. I don't know, I don't work there !

Richard