"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 24 Sep, 20:50, "Will Hand" wrote:

Hi Graham, I have never been a fan of it either. IIRC on TWO I criticised
Brian Gaze about it and I also disputed the value with Paul Bartlett on
here. My argument was that in a changing climate, pattern matching is
futile
with nugatory value. Also what do you match? The atmosphere is a
3-dimensional fluid, so matching surface patterns or 500 mb charts will
not
give the whole story. I accept there are teleconnections and important
SST
anomalies that may give useful signals but that is as far as I would
stretch
it. I have indeed used some of these myself in the past plus a few other
"indicators" with mixed results. Seasonal forecasting is incredibly
difficult, even getting the phase of the NAO is not easy, let alone
weather
variations. I'm more than happy to see what the big professional
organisations put out and take an average!

Oh come on Will, where's your sense of fun gone!! It's part of the
sense of fun in the run-up to winter to wonder what may be in store
and what previous winters may have led to, so please stop your
discouragement. Frivolous part of reply over.


Richard, my sense of fun is still here believe you me, but this newsgroup
has changed. If I put out something, I'll be accused of guessing and a great
debate will start. This newsgroup is really no place for frivolity anymore.
Remember years ago Paul B. and I collaborated and put out joint efforts - a
lot of work but great fun! IIRC Paul got fed up because his indicators kept
out coming mild with little variability.

Will
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