On 25 Sep, 08:08, Dawlish wrote:
On Sep 25, 12:15*am, Richard Dixon wrote:





On 24 Sep, 23:16, Dawlish wrote:

Some unnecessary prejudice there against climatologists (the "churned
out" comment speaks volumes). Methinks you could learn much from the
more informed of them. As you say, you can safely say you are not a
world-leading expert. Probably best to leave it to those that know
more.

You've misread me marvellously, Paul. I have nothing but respect for
the climatologists and long-range forecasters who are battling to find
meaning in the noise that is seasonal forecasts, of which I'm sure
there is genuine value. If you're in the school of "seasonal forecasts
have no value" then I will disagree wholeheartedly given the amount of
research time paid to it. Note lack of use of word "churn" this time.

Pattern-matching, as practised by most is an exercise in frovolity,
IMO.

Yes, I agree, but it's a bit of fun, and something I like to follow as
it gets us ready for the run-up to winter. It's a shame that the likes
of Paul Bartlett don't post on here any more, critical analysis of his
efforts or not.

However, as practised by a climatologist that is prepared to
actively research, it becomes an excercise of interest, which could
lead to learning. H. Lamb was a fine climatologist. You'd do well to
read his work.

I have done. I have H H Lamb's "Historic storms of the North Sea,
British Isles and Northwest Europe" - a fine read. And for what it's
worth, I still actively research in meteorology.

I'll dig out the research paper for you.

Richard

Merci.

http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?...B%3E2.0.CO%3B2

.... and this is simply a statistical approach and not dynamical.
Limited predictability in mid-latitudes.

Richard