On Oct 1, 9:00*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-...809984001&chan....

That guy says what I want to hear.

Must be a "great forecast" then.

Also, is this an echo from over a week ago? Maybe we are doomed to see
Joe's winter forecast again and again on a regular basis..... 8))

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...3cca91fbbbb1d#

The answer to your question, for his long-range forecasts is; "no" -
or you can bet your life that his accuracy stats would be plastered
all over Accuweather. Joe relies on people forgetting his wrong
forecasts and remembering his correct ones. From ad hoc monitoring I'd
support that "no". He forecast a colder than average north-westerly
month in September for the UK and in his video, even he says that his
summer forecast for the UK was "too warm". However, he did forecast a
warmer than average summer, so I'll give him that one. Please remember
those two when he gets others wrong, or right, because.....

........After those two forecasts, he needs another correct one to get
to 66% accuracy (2 correct out of 3) - the hindsight accuracy of the
MetOs forecasts of the NAO. He would need 2 consecutive correct long-
range forecasts to achieve 75% accuracy and 3 on the trot to get to
the 80% accuracy which would be finally better than forecasting a
warmer than average winter from 30-year hindsight forecasts of UK
winters in this warming trend. I think getting 3 on the trot is
unlikely, because, like you Lawrence, he's looking for a particular
outcome to back his views about GW having stopped i.e. he's forecast a
cold winter for the UK because he wants one.

It's about a 25% chance of the UK getting a colder than average winter
this year (based on UK winters over the last 30 years) = 3/1 against.
It would be the same odds for one single month being colder than
average. To get all three winter months, Dec, Jan and Feb, colder than
average would be 3x3x3 =27/1* against on that 30-year hindsight
calculation. Does Joe realise how much he's bitten off with that
forecast? Of course it *could* happen and if he gets it right, his
reputation would be set in stone for years.......despite any analysis
of his outcome percentage success. Good luck Joe - you'll need it!

*it's probably a little less than this due to persistence - if we've
had two consecutive cold months, it *may* be more likely that we'll
get a third one as the blocking would probably be very well
established and may well persist.