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Old October 8th 09, 10:54 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Dawlish Dawlish is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Mar 2008
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Default What makes Met Office long-term forecasts so wrong?

On Oct 7, 11:43*pm, John. Athome wrote:
Global warming dogma and faulty computer models led the Met Office to
forecast a 'barbecue summer' for 2009, says Christopher Booker.

(Big Long Read - Daily Telegraph 3rd October)


You are mixing up seasonal forecasting and long-term global climate
forecasting in your title here; as is the Mr. Booker. They need
separating.

Seasonal forecasting is not possible with accuracy at present, but the
MetO is under constant pulic pressure to issue these forecasts and
there is an unfulfillable expectation that they should be right every
time. The combination of those two factors is completely certain to
expose the Met Office to criticism because they are bound to be wrong
from time to time. This summer, the MetO press office made a silly
comment from which they will learn. Between a rock and a hard place
would be an accurate description of the MetO's position here, between
public expectation and present forecasting limitations, though much
work is going on to research seasonal signals and this may reap
rewards in the near(ish) future in terms of increased forecast
accuracy.

30-100 year long-term climate forecasting has not yet come to outcome,
so how can it be wrong?

As for the word "dogma". Believe that so many climate scientists are
wrong at yours, and the world's, peril. The science is at least
9/10ths settled for most scientists and that's enough to convince me
that we should take action. It's also enough for a minority to say we
shouldn't. The smart bet would be to go with 1/9 and not bet at odds
of 9/1.