According to NOAA, the present El Nino has strengthened a little over
the past week:
*El Niņo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
*Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ēC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
*Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niņo
is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter
2009-10.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf
3 models now predict this El Nino as being a significantly stronger
event (at a peak of +1.5C), which is a change from last week and the
majority of models are still predicting an El Nino of +1.0C. The El
Nino strength predictions have increased slightly from last week and
most models are extending the duration of the El Nino into next
spring.
Also, The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had this to say in their
fortnightly update:
The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface remains warmer than average and
exceeds El Niņo thresholds in central to eastern regions.
The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific remains slightly warmer
than the long-term mean across most of the central to eastern Pacific;
there has been some warming in the central Pacific recently which is
expected to shift eastwards over the coming weeks.
The latest 30-day SOI value is -1, while the monthly value for
September was +4. The SOI is currently neutral.
The Trade winds have weakened across the central to eastern Pacific in
the last two weeks, with weaker than normal trade flow now evident
along most of the equatorial Pacific.
Cloudiness near the date line remains greater than the long-term mean.
However, when compared with other El Niņo events, the current trend in
cloudiness is weak.
Most leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau
predict the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) to remain
above El Niņo thresholds until at least the end of the southern
summer.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
As a result and as long as the El Nino develops in line with the
majority of the models, I would be surprised if some new global
monthly temperature records are not set through the boreal autumn and
winter.