On Oct 19, 10:08*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

Looking like this dry spell will end and not return for a while. 4
consecutive gfs runs now showing Atlantic conditions across the UK for
the forseeable future. A large Scandinavian block may delay the
progress of those lows and fronts somewhat, keeping eastern areas of
the UK drier, but that looks as if it may decline and allow in
Atlantic weather further by T240. It would need a 5th gfs run and ECM
agreement for me to forecast with confidence. Not exactly a zonal
train, but not the settled and mainly dry weather that we've become
used to. Never cold, but not particularly mild either. Autumnal
looking, I suppose - whatever exactly that means in the UK!

But hey what do I know.

True.

It's knowing when not to forecast that's the real key to any success
at T240+. Both models have altered their stance considerably by this
morning and both were showing something different from the Atlantic-
driven scenario by yesterday evening - hence no forecast from me.

The 00z gfs and ECM both now show northern blocking, with a ridge from
the north covering the UK at T240. Yesterday afternoon, I wouldn't
have bet on that being shown 3 gfs runs later. I'll have to see
another day's runs to be convinced, however.

The MetO is still stuck on yesterday lunchtime's model output, which
is no good to anyone 22 hours later. MInd you, their guess is probably
as good as anyone's out towards the end of the month, after this
morning's model output!

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Oct 2009 to Monday 2 Nov 2009:
On Saturday, wet and windy weather will spread northeastwards across
southern and central parts of the United Kingdom, while it's likely to
stay mainly dry and bright across much of northern Britain. By Sunday,
the wettest weather is expected to be across Northern Ireland and
northern Britain, with bright but showery weather affecting England
and Wales. The unsettled, changeable theme looks set to continue for
the rest of the period, with spells of wet and windy weather
interspersed by brighter, showery conditions. The rain generally most
frequent and heaviest in the west, where there is likely to be gales
at times. Generally mild throughout the period, with any frost mainly
limited to the north during any clearer nights.

Updated: 1201 on Mon 19 Oct 2009


Certainly very unsettled over the next week, but it's back to model-
watching for me, as there is no consistency over time in this output
from either the gfs, or the ECM, as regards at 10 days hence.