"Col" wrote in message
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"Dawlish" wrote in message
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On Oct 21, 6:48 pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

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It's just not there. The 06z sinks the high!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

But back again on the 12z.....
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Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Very true Col! The 06z was probably an outlier, but the interruption
to the consistency begs a couple more runs and agreement from the ECM
before a forecast.

Yes, I am beginning to understand how you approach these10
day forecasts. It's all about consistency and ultimately 'confidence'.
If you get a run that suddenly goes against what the recent runs
have been showing then that confidence is shaken and it takes a
few more runs showing the original sceanario to get that confidence
back to it's original level.
That run *could* be an outlier, but then it *could* depict what the
weather actually does!
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Col

Of course professional forecasters don't have that luxury. Customers want
forecasts and they want them now!

Will
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