In article ,
Will Hand writes:

"Col" wrote in message news:4NSdnYGhC8U4zkL
...

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Oct 21, 6:48 pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

It's just not there. The 06z sinks the high!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

But back again on the 12z.....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Very true Col! The 06z was probably an outlier, but the interruption
to the consistency begs a couple more runs and agreement from the ECM
before a forecast.

Yes, I am beginning to understand how you approach these10
day forecasts. It's all about consistency and ultimately 'confidence'.
If you get a run that suddenly goes against what the recent runs
have been showing then that confidence is shaken and it takes a
few more runs showing the original sceanario to get that confidence
back to it's original level.
That run *could* be an outlier, but then it *could* depict what the
weather actually does!
-- Col

Of course professional forecasters don't have that luxury. Customers
want forecasts and they want them now!

But they do have the big advantage of access to the ensembles, whereas I
believe that Dawlish uses only the production runs. Thus he can't tell
whether or not a particular production run is likely to be an outlier
other than by relying on consistency between models and from one run to
the next.
--
John Hall "Do you have cornflakes in America?"
"Well, actually, they're American."
"So what brings you to Britain then if you have cornflakes already?"
Bill Bryson: "Notes from a Small Island"