John Hall wrote:

In article ,
Will Hand writes:

"Col" wrote in message news:4NSdnYGhC8U4zkL
...

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Oct 21, 6:48 pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

It's just not there. The 06z sinks the high!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

But back again on the 12z.....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Very true Col! The 06z was probably an outlier, but the interruption
to the consistency begs a couple more runs and agreement from the ECM
before a forecast.

Yes, I am beginning to understand how you approach these10
day forecasts. It's all about consistency and ultimately 'confidence'.
If you get a run that suddenly goes against what the recent runs
have been showing then that confidence is shaken and it takes a
few more runs showing the original sceanario to get that confidence
back to it's original level.
That run could be an outlier, but then it could depict what the
weather actually does!
-- Col

Of course professional forecasters don't have that luxury. Customers
want forecasts and they want them now!

But they do have the big advantage of access to the ensembles, whereas I
believe that Dawlish uses only the production runs. Thus he can't tell
whether or not a particular production run is likely to be an outlier
other than by relying on consistency between models and from one run to
the next.


But why not look at the ensembles? The GFES ensembles are widely promulgated on
the net.


Norman