Monday ENSO update from NOAA.

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter
2009-10.

The El Nino is beginning to strengthen and most models go for a
significant strengthening through November/December, due to a Kelvin
wave bringing warmer water eastwards along the equator, as the
equatorial easterlies have weakened considerably over the past two
weeks. After that, most models have the El Nino persisting through the
boreal winter and through the spring, but only a few forsee
significant strengthening of the El Nino after December.

The ENSO SST pattern, with recent warming in regions 1 and 2 to
produce positive anomalies here looks to have a more of a "classic" El
Nino signature to me, than it has done in recent months, when Nino
areas 1&2 have shown negative anomalies.