On 29 Oct, 18:10, Malcolm wrote:
In article
,
Dawlish writes
On Oct 28, 6:26*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Great minds think alike. Simultaneously I started a similar thread!
Yes it could be further north OTOH it could slow even more and deepen
further south. Ensembles will be key to arriving at a most likely position.
Will
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"Dawlish" wrote in message
....
12z gfs has Sunday's depression on a very interesting track. I feel
that the low centre wil end up further North than currently forecast,
but there's some gales and heavy rain likely to be wrapped around that
low and it could prove to be a damaging storm. Lots of leaves still
left on trees and lots of blocked drains too.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png
Further afield, it looks like Autumn will hit the Med next week. Perf
Anyone who has escaped for half-term, to the western Med, at least,
has had some super October weather, but anyone who has tried to save
some money and tried to escape the kids in the resorts, or taken the
kids out of school to benefit from cheaper deals, might wish they
chosen this week instead!!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png-Hide quoted text -
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Not quite the same track this morning and the 00z gfs takes the
depression across Northern Ireland and then across Scotland, but still
with some strong winds and heavy rain,. Definitely one to watch ATM.
During today,http://www.xcweather.co.uk/have downgraded it and pushed
it further north. This morning, Islay (where I live) was set for force
8-9 for the much of the daytime. Now, it's a mere force 7, and even
further north into the Outer Hebrides it isn't given more than force 8.
Northern Ireland hasn't anywhere above force 6.
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Malcolm- Hide quoted text -
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XCWeather is still forecasting a Force 8 for Penzance 03:00 Sunday,
Force 9 for Scilly, though it looks like being short lived, just
before the front goes through.(
www.xcweather.co.uk/ ) Also it looks
like being SSW rather than SSE, which is the 'bad' direction here. The
tides aren't big, so there probably won't be any problems. On 20th Oct
there was some flooding due to a large Spring tide coinciding with
strongest onshore wind. This was widely mis-reported as being due to
heavy rain (The flooding that is not the wind). It led to delays on
the trains into Pz, and minor damage to the sea defences at Long Rock,
just east of Pz. Also it led to the pier car park at Mousehole being
shut for safety reasons for the 1st time since Spring. An
exceptionally late date for this, a reflaction of the exceptionally
quiet Autumn.
Surf was small today,
Graham
Penzance
Significant 21stC storms:-
www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/wpage9.html