For the first time in weeks, the "wxmaps" GFS chart shows a blob of blue
over England:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

This, of course, is due to the 12z GFS run but interestingly it's not a cold
outlier. The 12z GFS itself shows a succession of lows trundling over the
UK, from a NW'ly source and thus not especially mild. There'll be plenty of
rain as well, which is raising my hopes that we'll get a cold and wet
November.

Why's that so exciting, I hear you ask? Well, I seem to remember Paul
Bartlett saying that they're one of many signs that can point to a cold
winter ahead. Furthermore, I believe there was something about a warm, dry
October followed by a cold, wet November being a good portent of a cold
winter.

We've just had a warm and dry October: Hadley has +1.0C up to the 30th,
while Philip Eden shows +0.9C for the whole month - and just 69% of normal
rainfall. That's half of the experiment out of the way, now if we can manage
an equivalently cold and wet November I'll be most intrigued to see what
follows!