I remember Paul Bartlett saying this too Darren so i am keeping an eye on
it. However I also remember him throwing towel in as he believe global
warming makes his methods inaccurate now. Still be interesting to see though


Stan

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
For the first time in weeks, the "wxmaps" GFS chart shows a blob of blue
over England:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

This, of course, is due to the 12z GFS run but interestingly it's not a
cold outlier. The 12z GFS itself shows a succession of lows trundling over
the UK, from a NW'ly source and thus not especially mild. There'll be
plenty of rain as well, which is raising my hopes that we'll get a cold
and wet November.

Why's that so exciting, I hear you ask? Well, I seem to remember Paul
Bartlett saying that they're one of many signs that can point to a cold
winter ahead. Furthermore, I believe there was something about a warm, dry
October followed by a cold, wet November being a good portent of a cold
winter.

We've just had a warm and dry October: Hadley has +1.0C up to the 30th,
while Philip Eden shows +0.9C for the whole month - and just 69% of normal
rainfall. That's half of the experiment out of the way, now if we can
manage an equivalently cold and wet November I'll be most intrigued to see
what follows!