Dawlish wrote:
The present El Nino conditions have strengthened over the last week.
The model consensus is now that it will peak during the boreal winter,
as a moderate El Nino (+1.0C). It doesn't look like it will be an
exceptional event, a la 1998.

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter
2009-10.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.2.2009.gif

Certainly looks more uniform across the Pacific now. Bang goes any
chance of snow this year here :-(

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net