November 4th 09, 06:47 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Mar 2008
Posts: 10,601
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Verify to your heart's content
On Nov 3, 9:10*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Nov 3, 8:28 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
....
On Nov 3, 6:59 am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 3, 6:57 am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 2, 9:35 pm, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom
wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote:
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0
Is there any evidence that the "monthly forecasts" to be
found there are, in fact, the monthly forecasts issued to
their customer(s)?
Philip
My earlier point entirely.To gain access to the forecasts to be able
to verify them could cost you £500. The only verification I've been
able to do is on forecasts which weatheronline have published in the
press. Even then the criteria that Piers uses for verifiocation
probably isn't the criteria that I'd use. Nevertheless, there is some
validity in that ad hoc verification because of the numbers of times
that I've gone back to piers' forecasts and shown that they were
clearly wrong.
If an 85% success rate is to be believed, that would mean that an
amazing amount of forecasts would have to becorrect (34, if 6 were
wrong).
I'd need to see evidence of forecast verification criteria for each of
the forecasts of which that weatheronline claim to have been correct.
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