On Nov 3, 9:00*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
The present El Nino conditions have strengthened over the last week.
The model consensus is now that it will peak during the boreal winter,
as a moderate El Nino (+1.0C). It doesn't look like it will be an
exceptional event, a la 1998.

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter
2009-10.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ng/lanina/enso...

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.2.2009.gif

Certainly looks more uniform across the Pacific now. Bang goes any
chance of snow this year here :-(

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

It does now look more "classic" now. The pattern of warmth seemed to
be heading that way last week, as downwelling was beginning to spread
across to the east. However, the link between an El Nino and a mild
winter in the UK is a tenuous one. I'd not reduce the chances of a
cold winter as a result of there being a likely El Nino Keith and you
could get heavy snowfalls in any UK winter. As I keep saying, we can
get a cold winter any year, even in a warming trend, it's just that
the odds against it are longer than they were 30/40 years ago (i.e.
there's less chance of one) and we have no idea in which particular
year the cold one will turn up - even only 4 weeks away from its
start!

3/1 a cold winter. If anyone believes that GW has stopped and the UK
can't completely buck that global trend, those odds are a giveaway.