Jon O'Rourke wrote:

"Nick" wrote in message
...
I've noticed the Met Office is advising a weather advisory for
Saturday morning for the south of England for heavy rain, but that
doesn't seem to tie in with the pressure charts: GFS and ECM suggest
some rain going through Friday night (after midnight, so technically
morning I guess) then some more after dark on Saturday - the Met
Office pressure charts suggest the same but the low moving in from the
SW after dark on Saturday seems to be absent. So where do they get
Saturday morning from?

Nick

Nick. a band of locally heavy rain will spread NE tomorrow in association
with the occlusion/cold front depicted on the 12Z T+48
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack0a.gif Further rain is then expected to
spread up from the south in association with the development running up from
Biscay at T+60 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

What perhaps isn't so obvious is a risk of snow on the occlusion overnight
tomorrow across Wales and parts of central/northern England as the front runs
up against colder air in the north. The main risk is over high ground but
with time it cold quite easily descend to low levels on Saturday morning as
the wet-bulb freezing level lowers close to the pivoting front. Something to
keep any eye on anyway..

Jon.


The air is already cold enough for showers here this evening to be falling as
sleet. Present temp is 3.0 at 2145z.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.