On Nov 27, 4:27*pm, Len Wood wrote:
On Nov 27, 3:15*pm, "Alan Murphy" wrote:

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message

...http://www.metoffice.com/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/

Martin.

Martin Rowley

Let me guess. A barbecue winter?

In all seriousness though, after last summer's debacle over BBQs, the
UKMO clearly thinks a couple of bar charts with bare figures will help
the public to grasp the fact that there are large uncertainties in
seasonal forecasting. But they have to be more entertaining than that
if they are to grab people's attention. I suggest something like: Tell
the kids they have a 20% chance of a building a snowman. I am sure
other ng members can help the MO out with some punchy headlines,
although I fear employees have had the hard word put on them not to
stick their necks out. Chickens!
On another point,
the highest probabilty given of a 50% chance of a mild winter (global
warming and all that) could be thought to increase the the probability
of wetness. This is not reflected in the precipitation forecast. Just
shows the silly idea that a warmer atmosphere which 'holds' more water
vapour will automatically give more rain is grossly simplistic, but
nevertheless is continually churned out by all and sundry.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon

I agree with much of what you say Len. The forecast has a plain theme
that the MetO is in full control and actually has a good idea of what
is likely to happen this winter and we should trust the forecast.
Essentially, they don't and we can't.

On the intro page to the seasonal forecasts, the MetO do say this:

"Seasonal forecasting is a developing area of meteorology and,
although these forecasts are not as accurate as our short-term
forecasts, they do demonstrate some skill in predicting what may
happen for a season (a three-month period) ahead."

However, the health warning on this forecast just isn't
(metaphorically) large enough and that comes through a systemic
unwillingness to feel that the public have any real role in it's work.
In this case, there's not enough admittance of the difficulties of
seasonal forecasting and if it's wrong, they'll be pilloried. It's the
education part that's missing and the hubris that the PR department
does little to dispel. The MetO would be far better engaging the
public with the difficulties and explaining the limitations before
putting out their seasonal forecasts. It simply isn't possible to
forecast the coming season with accuracy - yet. There's a lot that is
so frustrating about this, as the MetO is failing to sell itself well
enough as one of the finest and foremost forecasting agencies in the
world. It just feels that it is and that's not enough.