On Nov 17, 7:58*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 12, 10:37*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Nov 6, 9:22 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

On Nov 5, 5:45 pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.5.2009.gif

Nearest match 2002.http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11.11.2002.gif
and 2004http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2006/anomnight.11.11.2006.gif

Not sure I understand the red patches in the Arctic.

Or have I greatly misunderstood concerns about ice melt?

Do you understand it now?

Update from the Australian BOM. 11/11/09

"In brief

The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface has continued to warm in
central and eastern areas, with a typical El Niño pattern clearly
present. The central Pacific has now warmed to a level that has not
been observed since the 2002 El Niño.

The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has also continued to
warm, with temperatures as much as 6°C above normal in some regions.

The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is -15; the monthly value for
October was also -15. The SOI has recently stabilised after a rapid
fall in value through October.

Following a sustained weakening of the Trade Winds during October, a
pulse of average or stronger than average Trades is developing in the
western Pacific.

Cloudiness near the date-line has been slightly below average in
recent weeks. However, cloudiness to the west of the date-line has
been consistently above average, as also occurred during the 2006 El
Niño and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event.

Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau
predict that El Niño conditions will persist throughout the southern
hemisphere summer."

Warmer than was being predicted a couple of months ago, although some
models have been recently showing a sharp rise in temp in November,
which has happened.

MOnday update from NOAA. Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
across much of
the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is
expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the
Northern
Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

No great change. The mean of the model spread indicates a slightly
quicker return to ENSO neutral conditions at the end of the boreal
spring.

I'd expect that another two seasons of El Nino conditions should see
some record monthly global temperatures. If that happens, with this El
Nino being unlikely to achieve anywhere near the peak strength of the
1998 version and solar output still at a minimum, it would be very
good evidence for continuing GW. With current conditions, you wouldn't
expect global temperatures to be anywhere near record figures, if
there wasn't an underlying warming driver.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This week's ENSO update from NOAA:

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere
winter2009-10.

Little change on the face of it, though fewer models are predicting an
extension of this El Nino into next summer. Most models still see the
El Nino strengthening through the next month, or two.