OK, an oddly timed post with potentially the coldest weather that the
UK has experienced in years about to arrive on our doorstep, but in
global terms, whatever happens in the UK, or Western Europe, over a
short period of time, is pretty irrelevant.

Instead, if you are reading this and you believe that GW is a result
of natural cycles, or natural influences, or if you believe that GW
has stopped; why, globally, isn't it presently colder than it is?

Consider these three major accepted natural influences on climate.

1. We are in an extended solar minimum and cycle 24 is still not
really under way. Solar activity has been very low since before the
end of cycle 23 in early 2008. "Sunspots are at a 50-year low and we
are experiencing a deep solar minimum" David Hathaway, NASA. It is
also the "dimmest sun on record" (David Pesnell, NASA). Effectively,
the sun's output is reduced.

2. We are in a negative phase of the PDO. There has actually been 3
consecutive weakly positive months, but researchers put us in a
negative phase, which started in 2007. Research from Steven Hare,
Shoshiro Minobe and the JISAO shows that a negative phase of the PDO
is linked to colder gobal conditions. The period 1980-2007 was a
positive (warmer) phase and many sceptics link this to the period of
warming global temperatures.

Each of these first two global effects would be expected to influence
temperatures negatively. Accepted, there would be a time lag before
their effects would be fully felt, but each has now been operative for
2 years and thus would be expected to be influencing global
temperatures downwards by now.

3. Thirdly, we are experiencing an El Nino, which would be expected to
increase global temperatures. However, this El Nino has only just
established itself, though El Nino conditions have been experienced
since the early boreal summer 2009. Neither is this El Nino anything
like as strong as the El Nino of 1998, which produced record global
temperatures.

Now; the last 6 months of global measurements from the NOAA have
produced months which are 4th, 2nd, 5th, 2nd, 2nd and 6th in their
respective 130 year sequences, i.e. the world is just about as warm as
it has ever been in any 6 month period since 1880.

So: with these three major natural cycles in the state they are, my
question is; why isn't it colder, globally, than it actually is?