2 things to comment on Peter:
1) Timelines on graph not even. Making recent warming look a shallow upward
line, with no ups and downs in recent history which we all know there has
been.
2) It is also not painting whole picture, natural warming/cooling in past
has been due to either natural increase/decrease in solar output, changes in
natural green house gases etc this warming has been measured to increase
with increases in industrial CO2 which has a easily identified isotope. We
are also in a cooling phase of solar output which is opposing the man made
warming which came after a warming phase during 80's and 90's. However we
are not seeing significant falls in temperature as we saw warming in warming
in warming phase of sun which means there must be something else. Just a
coincidence that industrial CO2 (CO2 is a lab proven greenhouse gas) has
been increasing ?
I let you make your own mind up.
From reading comments here no matter what evidence says people seem to have
fallen into their own camp on the issue and will not have their minds
changed either way. To make things worse is the abuse which people throw at
each other. I firmly believe AGW is happening but I do have friends who I
generally believe to be intelligent but although I do get frustrated with
their lack of wanting to believe what I see as overwhelming evidence, I
would never insult them or give the abuse I see posted by some on the
newsgroup, from both sides of the argument.
Stan
"Peter Muehlbauer" wrote in message
enexpress.de...
Dawlish wrote:
OK, an oddly timed post with potentially the coldest weather that the
UK has experienced in years about to arrive on our doorstep, but in
global terms, whatever happens in the UK, or Western Europe, over a
short period of time, is pretty irrelevant.
Instead, if you are reading this and you believe that GW is a result
of natural cycles, or natural influences, or if you believe that GW
has stopped; why, globally, isn't it presently colder than it is?
Consider these three major accepted natural influences on climate.
1. We are in an extended solar minimum and cycle 24 is still not
really under way. Solar activity has been very low since before the
end of cycle 23 in early 2008. "Sunspots are at a 50-year low and we
are experiencing a deep solar minimum" David Hathaway, NASA. It is
also the "dimmest sun on record" (David Pesnell, NASA). Effectively,
the sun's output is reduced.
2. We are in a negative phase of the PDO. There has actually been 3
consecutive weakly positive months, but researchers put us in a
negative phase, which started in 2007. Research from Steven Hare,
Shoshiro Minobe and the JISAO shows that a negative phase of the PDO
is linked to colder gobal conditions. The period 1980-2007 was a
positive (warmer) phase and many sceptics link this to the period of
warming global temperatures.
Each of these first two global effects would be expected to influence
temperatures negatively. Accepted, there would be a time lag before
their effects would be fully felt, but each has now been operative for
2 years and thus would be expected to be influencing global
temperatures downwards by now.
3. Thirdly, we are experiencing an El Nino, which would be expected to
increase global temperatures. However, this El Nino has only just
established itself, though El Nino conditions have been experienced
since the early boreal summer 2009. Neither is this El Nino anything
like as strong as the El Nino of 1998, which produced record global
temperatures.
Now; the last 6 months of global measurements from the NOAA have
produced months which are 4th, 2nd, 5th, 2nd, 2nd and 6th in their
respective 130 year sequences, i.e. the world is just about as warm as
it has ever been in any 6 month period since 1880.
So: with these three major natural cycles in the state they are, my
question is; why isn't it colder, globally, than it actually is?
The solution is really simple, if you take 5 minutes to think it over.
3 hints:
a)
6 months are weather, not climate.
b)
don't think you can switch off the stored energy of 100 years doubled
solar
activity by next morning before breakfast.
c)
I have to fail you what relates to GW. There is no GW. GW exist simply
within
a well choosen period of time, that shows a NATURAL up.
However much or less measured data shows... the data is selective
perception,
only valid within the last 130 years of natural incline.
But this "up" has been seen a lot of times before this selected period.
Just like "downs", that were intentionally kept secretive.
Why does nobody talk about the "downs"?
The overall trend of climate is clearly cooling.
http://sceptics.umweltluege.de/vostok/vtrendz.png
See something supernatural here? I don't.
Meanwhile this (green) slope has plateaued and will change to "down" soon
again, like it often happened in the past (it's a too small period to show
in
this diagram, would be only 1-2 pixels).
Again for carve into AGWs forehead:
There is NO SIGN of a global warming.
Claims of a global warming have been made upon a selective time period.
Measured temperature changes within this period are irrelevant, all the
more
changes of a tenth or less degree.
Overall trend since beginning holocene is clearly DECLINING.