On Dec 10, 9:54*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 9, 10:37*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

You know Keith, OMG was exactly the words I uttered to my computer
screen when I saw the 06z gfs (and OMG yet again, note, my laptop is
getting used to this exclamation!). It is highly unlikely to pan out
exactly like that but we have an overall pattern which has a high
confidence (75%+) of producing wintry weather in 10 days and the
model;s are in almost complete areement. **OK, the 00z ECM shows
something a little different, but that's likely to be an outlier.**
Compared to the charts of the last few years, this really is OMG
territory - and if I'm saying that, after my long record of decrying
the idiots who shout "snowfest" at every cold chart at T240+ on the
gfs, then I reckon it is more likely to happen than not.

PS Wine tasting in a gym. Nice idea! *))

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

As I thought, the EMS ensemble mean shows colder than what was
indicated by the 00z chart. The cold pattern is very well set to at
last 10 days and probably further, though it looks as if it *may* turn
drier over the Christmas period. (Very low confidence in that, mind,
but if it was to turn drier, many areas would have snow-covered
Christmas, as there would be little thawing with the low temperatures
over the snowfields). ........Did I really write that? Strange times
indeed!