----- Original Message -----
From: "Dawlish"
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Sent: Thursday, December 10, 2009 10:04 AM
Subject: OMG !

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

As I thought, the EMS ensemble mean shows colder than what was
indicated by the 00z chart.

My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If I've
read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt and
the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day 10
(where the Op run ends).

What has changed on EC's 00Z Op run, and no doubt will continue to do so, is
the shape of the upper trough to the east of the UK and the subsequent
handling of any short wave developments in the North Sea. This has a
critical knock on effect on how far west any cold air in depth extends and
also how much precip. will affect the UK.

Jon.