Second consecutive gfs with a very different longer-term solution to
the extended cold. A long way off well beyond T240 and so it actually
means nothing so far........... but it's sitting in a little milder
corner in the back of my mind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png

On the other hand, if this gfs chart at 10 days is still there on the
18z and is backed by the ECM 12z...........I might actually be
forecasting a pre-Christmas armageddon. Those cold uppers over the UK
and that low pressure promise snow, the like of which we haven't seen
for a long time. Not enough consistency to forecast it yet, but what
amazing charts for 3 days before Christmas. It's just spellbinding
watching them. I confess to being completely flabberghasted by them.

You want to see the country grind to a halt with our major cities
under 6" of snow (OK, 2cm would do, I know) look at this chart at
T240:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png
(I think that's still the 27th - but a few days before Paul and the GFS
does paint an interesting scenario - even if it is only lines on a
chart.


What is also fascinating is the Greenland high develops to 1070 by the
end of the week, followed by a fairly swift collapse though. Interesting
days for all


Cheers

James
--
James Brown