On Dec 12, 12:16*pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:

Martin, you are an absolute star. I really appreciate the effort
involved. I didn't know that catalogue existed and it is now
bookmarked and will provide lots of future reading, as well as a good
hour's initial dipping in. I've cut down much, extracted some main
points from the most recent first and I've added my own summaries
FWIW:

Dynamical response of low-latitude middle atmosphere to major sudden
stratospheric warming events
Sathishkumar, S.
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, VOL. 71 NO. 8/9,
2009

The UKMO zonal mean zonal winds at 60°N show a short-term reversal to
westward winds in the entire upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere
and the low-latitude winds (8.75°N) show enhanced eastward flow in the
upper stratosphere and strong westward flow in the lower mesosphere
during the major SSW events at high latitudes. The mesosphere and
lower thermosphere (MLT) zonal winds acquired by medium frequency (MF)
radar at Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E) show a change of wind direction
from eastward to westward several days before the onset of SSW events
and these winds decelerate and weak positive (eastward) winds prevail
during the SSW events.

Not really UK based and I'd read about the reversal of stratospheric
winds prior to SSW events.

Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events
Martius, O.
Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 36 NO. 14, 2009

The primary causes for the onset of major, midwinter, stratospheric
sudden warming events remain unclear. In this paper, we report that 25
of the 27 events objectively identified in the ERA-40 dataset for the
period 1957–2001 are preceded by blocking patterns in the troposphere.
The spatial characteristics of tropospheric blocks prior to sudden
warming events are strongly correlated with the type of sudden warming
event that follows

Particular patterns of tropospheric blocking may precede SSWs but
there's little in this to help with forecasting UK surface conditions

Planetary wave breaking and tropospheric forcing as seen in the
stratospheric sudden warming of 2006
Coy, L.
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 66 NO. 2, 2009

Results also show that the anticyclonic development, initiated by the
subtropical wave breaking and associated with the poleward advection
of the low PV values, occurred over a limited altitude range of
approximately 6-10 km. The authors also show that the poleward
advection of this localized low-PV anomaly was associated with changes
in the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux from equatorward to poleward,
suggesting an important role for Rossby wave reflection in the SSW of
January 2006. Similar upper tropospheric forcing and subtropical wave
breaking were found to occur prior to the major SSW of January 2003.

Doesn't help in specific UK forecasting, except to reinforce what Will
said about SSWs influencing Rossby wave development. I was aware of
that.

Is there a statistical connection between stratospheric sudden warming
and tropospheric blocking events?
Taguchi, M.
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 65 NO. 4, 2008

[23] This study, based upon the ERA-40 data set, reveals
a clear linkage between major SSW events and blocks, with
the former being almost always preceded by the latter.
Separate composites compiled for displacement and splitting
SSW events indicate that displacement events are
associated with block occurrence in the eastern North
Atlantic, and splitting events associated with either the
occurrence of blocks in the eastern North Pacific or the
contemporaneous occurrence of blocks in the eastern North
Pacific and the North Atlantic.

[25] These results might, at first sight, be difficult to
reconcile with a recent study by Taguchi [2008], who
suggested that there is no statistically significant connection
between SSW events and tropospheric blocks. The apparent
contradiction is, however, easily resolved by noting that
most of the analysis in that study was done using 500 hPa
fields. As we have shown (cf. Figure 2) the wave amplitudes
at that level are very weak, and one needs to look at
200 hPa or above for clear signals to emerge.

I'd read the original 2008 paper by Taguchi. It was one of the main
factors in my holding the views that I expressed earlier. fascinating
to see the progression in the research. An obvious link to
tropospheric blocks and a real possibility for use in future UK
forecasting.

Effect of stratospheric sudden warming and vortex intensification on
the tropospheric climate
Kuroda, Y.
Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 113 NO. D15, 2008

Couldn't find, it, pity.

The possible influence of stratospheric sudden warming on East Asian
Weather
Deng, S.
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 25 NO. 5, 2008

By analyzing the linkage of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) anomaly to
the East Asian jet and the East Asian trough during Stratospheric
Sudden Warming (SSW), the influence of SSW on East Asian weather is
studied. The results show that the East Asian jet is strengthened and
the East Asian trough is deepened during SSW. With the downward
propagation of SSW, the strengthened East Asian jet and the East Asian
trough would move southward, expand westward and gradually influence
the area of north and northeastern China. This implies that the winter
monsoon tends to be enhanced over East Asia during SSW.

Not UK, but a very interesting summary! I certainly didn't know about
the link to the East Asian winter monsoon.

What kind of stratospheric sudden warming propagates to the
troposphere?
Nakagawa, K.I.
Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 4, 2006

Requires subscription. Couldn't find it elsewhere.

Influence of stratospheric sudden warming on the equatorial
troposphere
Kodera, K.
Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 6, 2006

Not enoughy of a UK use.

The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern
hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002
Charlton, A.J.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, VOL. 131 NO.
609, 2005

Stratospheric sudden warmings are the clearest and strongest
manifestation of dynamical coupling in the stratosphere–troposphere
system..............Major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings are
found to occur with a frequency of approximately six events per
decade, and 46% of warming events lead to a splitting of the
stratospheric polar vortex.

Not a clear link to UK weather, but we have a split polar vortex at
present, which is helping this UK cold event to take place (not to do
with SW, though the stratosphere is beginning to warm). A less than
50% occurrence, but nevertheless possibly significant for future UK
forecasting.

The other articles are pre 1995. I'd rather see some more of the more
recent publications.

Really interesting. I said before; "Research shows tentative links,
but that's all they are. Maybe future research will bring stratosheric
warming more into mainstream forecasting of the onset of colder
conditions in a UK winter. I wouldn't rule it out, but neither would I
go anything like as far as "often"! I also said this, in response to
Will: "I feel the same about events in the stratosphere affecting
surface conditions, Will, as I've said. There are links and I'm
convinced that these affect surface conditions.

I'd still, after scan-reading these papers and fully reading the
abstracts, not go with "fully", however, reading these has widened my
understanding and reinforced my original beliefs that SSWs affect
surface conditions. I still don't, however, feel that SSWs can be used
"often" to forecast surface conditions in the UK, but as I've said
several times and with restraint and politeness in the face of some
pretty fierce and incorrect criticism and questioning, I would be very
interested in finding out more

Thank you again for the link Martin and I hope my summaries are
helpful to others. *))