Well done Andrew Bond ....again ;-)


For those of you lucky enough not to be living within the BBC London broadcast
region, or lucky enough to have missed the local news early this evening, AB
was interviewed in person (this remark is an opinion on the programme, not AB).
The justification for the f'cast was given but so briefly I am afraid I missed
it (I do not pay much attention to that programme). This was followed by Peter
Cockcroft's forecast of a cold snap next week, though all credit to PC for
expressing scepticism on the winter forecast (I had woken up a bit by this
time!). The forecast details can be seen (free) at
http://www.metcheck.com/premium/winter2004.asp, where it appears a bit less
hyped up than on the news tonight. If Andrew is reading this thread, I am sure
there would be genuine interest in his reasoning.

All I think we can say at present is that AB has a 50% chance of being right if
the only alternative to 'cold' is 'mild'. If this month does end up colder than
average, it continues the trend for Octs. to buck the warming trend. Off the
top of my head I can think of both warm and cold winters that have followed
mild Octobers. Others no doubt will be able to express the odds more precisely
than that.

Julian
Julian Mayes, Molesey, Surrey.

NB. I wish to make it clear that I am not an habitual viewer of the BBC London
local news in the early evening. Long may that remain true!