"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
.......time slip!

Thursday is beginning to look extremely interesting. Something Will
talked about some time ago and he'll be able to give more on the
dynamics that I can. If he's got any sense he'll be walking the moors
on such a day as this.


Hi Paul. I was indeed. Low cloud at first but then cleared with superb
visibility and sunny intervals.
Chilly with temperatures 2C-4C and F4 occ 5 NE wind. Did a nice 10 mile
circuit, Warren House Inn - Kes Tor - Sittaford - White Ridge and back.
Noticeable wind chill above 500m asl but not too bad as I was "wrapped up
warm". Amazingly mild in comparison here at Haytor with 6C, presumably more
sun!

OK, I would say that both Weds and Thurs are potentially snowy, though it
will come in bands and the detail is going to very difficult to pin down
until very near the time. The main driver is a weak NNE jet coming into
Scotland with pressure falls at left exit. These helped by Norway lee effect
in the easterly.

I note there has been some discussion about Xmas. My take on it is that it
is going to be a thoroughly messy and potentially severe weather situation
as a low deepens in mid-Atlantic thrusting warm air energy northwards. By
then the UK will be very cold and we will have the usual problem of warm air
moving slowly north with a gale force E - SEly ahead with potential for
blizzards followed by a thaw. Doubt as to how far north it will get as well
with a potential serious snow situation in northern England perhaps. OTOH it
could all happen down in SW too far ahead yet but I would say that the
signal for something like that is emerging. What is required to stop the
Atlantic breaking through is a build of pressure from the east towards
Scandinavia, as you never get a block with low pressure there. If such
happens then we could be facing a severe winter!

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
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