Will Hand wrote:


"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Dec 19, 5:47 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Since the high res. went operational on 15th I have noticed a tendency to
deepen lows all over the place compared to ECM/UK/JMA. Has anyone else
noticed this? Jon? It is important as such behaviour can cuase big
differences in forecast evolution. E.g. compare T+72s
onhttp://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-
bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000...

Will
--

Keep your eyes on these for the outcomes to 5/6 days Will.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html

The latest verifications will still be from the old model, but the new
res should kick into the verification stats in a couple of days time.
As usual, the ECM has recently been outperforming all the other models
but I imagine there will be a few American eyes looking at those
verification stats over the next month.
=====================

Excellent, many many thanks for that link Paul, I'll have a look now.

Another thought, I have seen models with similar problems before and the
cause was linked to over enthusiastic latent heat feedback loops.

PS I'm not trying to be over critical of GFS, which is a good model, these
things happen sometimes!


I think it was the UM's first appearance when it forecast a low of 920. We
thought it was overegging it but it was proved right and so we then thought
what a marvellous model it was. Unfortunately, it then went for a succession
of forecasts of 920 lows, none of which materialised.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."