|"Alan" wrote in message
...
|On Jan 3, 10:32 am, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
At the moment the most likely time for a reasonable fall of snow looks to
be
around Wednesday as a front moves South. It also looks as though as it
does
so it could split East and West and frankly anywhere, including the S.E
could miss out so be prepared. No rattles out of said pram though, there
should be further opportunities.
Dave
|
|GFS 06Z 03/01/2010 run shows some interesting 144 hour accumulated
|liquid totals, if it is to be believed.
|The south coast around Southampton could be in for a big dump!
|
|http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs144sum.gif
|

I had a look at the Bracknell charts on
http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm (link courtesy of "Weather Jack"
Harrison) which currently has three forecast charts for 12Z on Wednesday 6
January. The oldest one (T+96) would indeed be "Apocalypse Now" for our
part of the world if it verified. The next offering issued 12 hours later
for T+84 might push the odd flake of snow over the chalk downs. The most
recent one (T+72) looks totally innocuous for this part of the world.

As the general situation is northerly, I would be surprised if we see
anything much out of this here in the sunny south. A 600 mile land track
with a number of ranges of hills en route will see to that. Even the chalk
downs around Guildford and Haslemere are normally sufficient to prevent
anything significant reaching the Southampton area on a NEly unless there is
strong synoptic forcing. To get serious snow here (as opposed to freezing
rain, which we took big just before Christmas and which only requires
southerlies or southwesterlies aloft bringing showers off the Channel) we
need a SEly with very cold air coming off the Continent.

The freezing rain event was weird. We had a very shallow layer of cold air
at -3C or below which just sat on the ground while the mild air containing
the rain showers rolled over only about 1500 - 2000 ft above. I watched the
ice build up thinking "it just needs the wind to pick up and it will thaw
just like that", but it didn't happen.
--
- Yokel -
Yokel @ Ashurst New Forest
SU 336 107 17m a.s.l.

"Yokel" posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.