On Jan 4, 9:15*am, Joe Egginton wrote:
Without AGW would this present cold period, be much colder ?

There's a $64,000 question and a good one to ask. Of course, the
answer must be that we don't fully know, but I've been having my
suspicions!

Our present weather is, of course, all about local synoptics Joe and
it's important to look further afield, as well as in hindsight, when
considering how cold it is. Presently, there are below average temps
in the UK and parts of Western Europe, but it is and has been much
warmer than average in the Eastern Med and further to our east too
(18C forecast in Tashkent for the next 2 days and 15C already there
today). Southern Greenland still has above average temps (-30C at
Summit, however), but there is heavy snow in Beijing with below
average temps, whilst Japan's temperatures look about average. Would
they all be a little cooler if it wasn't for GW? Well, on a world
scale, yes; there will be more places warmer than cooler than they
would have been 50 years ago, as the world is clearly warmer, so
*perhaps* we'd be colder too if we'd been experiencing exactly the
same synoptics in 1962/3.

It will be interesting to see the comparative temperatures for the
Northern Hemisphere in December, then in January, then for the winter
as a whole and it will be easier to make comparisons from that, rather
than from looking at our weather ATM. It will be even better to see
what has happened globally in December, then in January. Despite our
localised cold, I'd expect both months to fall in the top 10 warmest
since records began and they may well end up close to the warmest ever
- as was November and as have been so many months over the last 5
years.

The final question is whether the worldwide warming is caused by
people. I'd go 1/10 on that one. Most climate scientists would agree,
or go even more likely, saying that AGW *is* caused by CO2. A few
scientific sceptics would say it was less likely and perhaps odds
against and an even smaller number of outright denialists would say
that AGW was simply not happening.