In article ,
"Joe Whyte (JCW)" writes:
"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
Dawlish wrote:
I wish!

Must be an atrocious warm outlier from T200 onwards and completely
different from the ECM at T240. I was going to extend my 10-day-in-
advance cold forecast further out to mid-January this evening, then
the gfs throws this out! Ah well, back to watching.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png


http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif
As you say ECM doesn't agree with it, the gfs 0z I feel will change back.
Quite amazing to be saying something like this!


It's the 12z Paul is linking too.
It's a bit of an outlier but not totally unsupported albeit 4 or 5 runs.
Interesting times...

I've already remarked on it in another thread, though the ensemble
wasn't available to me. I haven't checked the ECMWF ensemble, but the
"mittel" chart towards day 8 or 10 gives the wind over the UK more of a
SEly fetch, suggesting that some members could be going the same way as
the GFS operational run.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)