"John Hall" wrote in message
...

I've already remarked on it in another thread, though the ensemble
wasn't available to me. I haven't checked the ECMWF ensemble, but the
"mittel" chart towards day 8 or 10 gives the wind over the UK more of a
SEly fetch, suggesting that some members could be going the same way as
the GFS operational run.
--

There's a lot of spread in the 12Z EC ENS output in terms of 850hPa
temperatures from day 6 but there does seem to be fairly good support for a
trend towards slightly less cold air in depth by day 10 and also for
increasing contour heights (and hence surface pressure) in the vicinity of
the UK. I would imagine the boundary layer would remain very cold though.

Jon.