3 consecutive gfs runs with milder conditions at T240+, then at T240
and hints (but only hints) from the ECM of Atlantic air pushing our
way. GEM on the fence with high pressure hanging on to our NE and a
very messy situation resulting over England with easterlies still over
Scotland at 10 days. Worth watching now.

The gfs 00z ens are the latest I can find. They show the 00z
operational run, which had the first hints of milder air, as being a
marked warm outlier at T240+ and pretty well unsupported at T240
itself; probably what you'd have expected 12 hours ago, and if the
mild air had now disappeared I wouldn't be talking about
possibilities, but we are now 2 runs on and the gfs is sticking to its
guns. Anyone got a link to the 06z, or the 12z gfs ens? Was the op run
a warm outlier on both?

http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

My confidence of an end to the cold spell is still fairly low, but has
risen a little today!