On Thu, 7 Jan 2010 11:47:26 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Jan 7, 5:44*pm, "Mark Chamberlain (Southend)"
wrote:
Am I being over optimistic or am I missing something. There are a few
people posting a big change to the forecast over the coming 5 days. I
still see potential for snow over the coming days and beyond
especially down the eastern side of the country. My lack of indepth
knowledge may be letting me down here. Maybe Will or Dawlish could
enlighten me.

Mark
Southend

Hi Mark. I wouldn't claim that I'm an "optimist" in this respect!

This was my 10-day forecast from Jan 1st, for Jan 11th.:

"**On Monday 11th January, at T240, temperatures across the bulk of
the
UK will be below average. The airflow over the UK will have an
easterly, or a northerly component, depending on whether high
pressure
is located to the north, or most probably, the north-west of the UK
and any disturbances in this cold airflow will produce wintry
showers,
mainly of snow and perhaps extended periods of snow in lowland areas
of the UK. Due to the coming cold over the next 10 days, snow will
have been lying in some lowland areas for over a week and night
frosts
will be intense in many areas, especially over snowfields**".

I don't see any reason to change it, unfortunately. I rather wish it
would result in a poor forecast, but I don't think that will be the
case. Sunday has the potential to be horrendous in the south.

Since then, despite several close calls, I haven't seen either the
consistency, or the agreement to forecast again at 10 days since I
posted that forecast, 6 days ago. ATM, the ECM shows very cold to 10
days and the gfs doesn't show the same. I favour the ECM, but I
haven't got the confidence to be 75% certain of forecast that!

Is that calming the pessimists? 8))

LOL.
Thanks for the explanation.

Heres to a winter that has and will keep us all talking for a long
time to come.

Mark
Southend