On Sat, 9 Jan 2010 00:38:36 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Jan 8, 10:46*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message

...





James Brown wrote:
In message , "Keith(Southend)"
writes
James Brown wrote:
As I posted in an earlier thread - but now confirmed by the 12Z run the
ECMWF wants to really bring in the mild stuff, albeit with the colder
weather lurking in the wings - but is the MO seeing something different
from this and the GFS?
*Cheers
*James

Hi James,

Are you trying to wish it on us?
There seems to be consensus atm to ignore any mild changes, it really is
quite unheard of!

It's sheer jealousy Keith - living currently in a snow shadow on the
coast!! - but also very perplexed as to why the MO is sticking to its own
guns on this one.

Cheers

James

I understand ;-)

The EC may look mild but until the jet comes north it won't get anywhere
near mild just a bit less cold and then only really in the SW. We have a
large dome of very cold near surface air over UK at present and any precip.
is likely to be of snow or maybe freezing rain for quite a while.

Will
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Nothing yet that suggests with any certainty what the weather will be
at 10 days. The gfs is still gunning for milder, but the ECM keeps the
block to the east. I'm a little less sure about the block today; those
Atlantic lows on the ECM at 10 days are beginning to look as if they
might mean business, but I'm still favouring the ECM over the gfs.
That could change with a day's runs. This morning, a breakdown is
possible, but not yet likely and by no means certain enough to have
any confidence in it to forecast it. Anyone else like to have a go
with that model situation at 10 days?

I'm no forecaster, but my feeling is that with the overall blocking
pattern already setup, the cold air aint going to go anywhere fast due
to the sheer nature of it being heavy and difficult to shift.
Don't forget that we are not even into the historically coldest part
of the Winter yet.
A relatively small Atlantic low isn't going to change the overall
current status except dump more snow (rain,sleet, hail, frozen rain in
some places)
It reminds me of 1979 when we were snowed in for several days in North
Cornwall and roads were filled to the tops of hedges with blown snow.
It could all happen again the way it's looking