In article
,
Dawlish writes:
Nothing yet that suggests with any certainty what the weather will be
at 10 days. The gfs is still gunning for milder, but the ECM keeps the
block to the east. I'm a little less sure about the block today; those
Atlantic lows on the ECM at 10 days are beginning to look as if they
might mean business, but I'm still favouring the ECM over the gfs.
That could change with a day's runs. This morning, a breakdown is
possible, but not yet likely and by no means certain enough to have
any confidence in it to forecast it. Anyone else like to have a go
with that model situation at 10 days?

The 00Z GFS operational run restores the easterlies after only a brief
break, with 850mb temperatures becoming very low again. However it seems
very much a cold outlier. Be interesting to see twhat the 06Z, rolling
out now, comes up with.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)