This just about sums you up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyGx5MPPki4
Jealousy, that forecaster is so much better than me
I sometimes wonder, if this cold spell that we’re under
Could have been predicted by me for all this NG to see,
But no, it was that Damned Yank Joe *******i
My forecasts fall apart In just one lousy day
Especially when that Will is away
This Jealousy that tortures me could be ecstasy
If it weren’t for ******* Joe *******i
But I love him
I
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
This should convince anyone that his LRF record is hopeless and he, or
any of his followers has any right to claim that it is, because of a
couple of recent lucky guesses.
I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual
outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a
commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read,
but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following
this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the
outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this,
they are a bigger charlatan than he is.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...et+R eportJoe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005-72005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA.A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the EasternU.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for thestart of 2006, forecasters say.AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast callsfor colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for theeastern Great Lakes regions.*******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an activehurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and othersimilar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******iconcluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons weretypically cold and snowy in the Northeast.Actual Outcome (NOAA)December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation,with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averagingwarmer than the long-term mean.However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients;Spin from Accuweather.Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted adramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, tobegin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Servicepredicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of Aprilnatural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then theweather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price hadrisen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeksof advance warning of this opportunity.Commentary.The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was awarm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these peopledo to gain business.2006/7Forecast:*******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to-February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder-than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and centralGreat Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. willexperience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretchesfrom the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely seeabove-normal temperatures."Actual Outcome (NOAA):Winter
ecember-February temperatures were near much above average for thenation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominatedthe winter average. For information on temperature records during theseason, please go to NCDC's Extremes page.Commentary.The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i hadpredicted. The USA winter was warmer than average.2007/8Forecast:JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECASTThe extended winter forecast for the months of November through Marchcalls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditionalwinter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heatwill be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For thenation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter;especially in the second half of January and February when last winterseason was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, wefind that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and lastwinter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in majorareas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of linefrom the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for belownormal is over the Pacific Northwest.Outcome:November14th warmest November on record (1895-2006).Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region.Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island)were record warmest during November.January49th warmest January on record (1895-2007).Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest Januaryon record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Coloradoand Texas.MarchFor the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmestsuch month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmerthan the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 waswarmer in the 113-year national record.Commentary:Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was atthe start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle!2008/9Forecast.Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******iissued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overallcolder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters forthe East Coast. About the winter *******i says:"It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-averagetemperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' inthe saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for awhile."Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather throughthe week, see our full forecast.*******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at thebeginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in themiddle.Outcome.For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for Decemberwas 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th centurymean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based onpreliminary data.For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for Januarywas 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th centurymean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based onpreliminary data.For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for Februarywas 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th centurymean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based onpreliminary data.Commentary:Although the winter overall had very slightly below averagetemperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder atthe start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing likewhat he’d forecast.4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall tocriticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK.*))