On Jan 11, 8:28*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 10, 8:05*pm, Nick wrote:





On Jan 10, 7:51*pm, "Graham" wrote:

Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think about
showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards breaching
that Scandinavian block?

Yes please, let's hope so

Graham

Nah, 20 Jan is too early :-)

When the sun rises before 7 and sets after 5, then it can go mild. The
mildness will at least feel springlike then!

Nick

Just a little further back east on the 00z ECM. Less so, ironically,
on the gfs, but both models are showing milder at 10 days now and are
both more inclined to move the atlantic through. Tentative, but are we
seeing the longer term end to the cold. Here's hoping, but forecasting
hope doesn't lead to success - as amply demonstrated on another thread!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

15-day 12z ens for The Netherlands. They *suggest* a warming and no
return to the cold at 10 days+. This is probably colder than we are
likely to experience as well. It *could* spell the death knell for a
return of the cold.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

In addition, the Jet is showing some signs of abandoning its southerly
path.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22814.png

Not enough confidence yet, but by later this evening, there's a chance
that I'll be 75% convinced of a longer term change.

In the meantime, I'm really looking forward to 10C in Dawlish over the
weekend........but I'm not looking forward to hosing the dog clean and
drying him after every walk again (he's probably not that keen on it
either!)!