In article
,
Nick writes:
i.e 18Z GFS, 00Z ECM and 00Z GFS seem to be worryingly in agreement
about the northern jet stream becoming permanently active a week from
now - and in the shorter term, all three models want to push the
trough northwards tomorrow, with westerlies from Wed to Sun. So is the
longer term return to cold(ish) still on?

Nick

No sign of it on the 06Z GFS operational run, which is going for a
single, and exceptionally intense, polar vortex in the region of
Greenland. In the SE of the UK, in particular, it looks like there
should be a lot of dry, and perhaps at times quite spring-like, weather.

The 00Z GFS ensemble was rather tantalising, with the Control run
(though not of course the Operational or most ensemble members) showing
a return to prolonged deep cold.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)